ADB ascertains Vietnam’s growth at 6.5%
By Thu Nguyet and Thanh Trung - The Saigon Times Daily
HCMC – The Asian Development Bank on Tuesday reiterated that Vietnam’s economy would expand by 6.5% this year, on a par with the current strong economic recovery in the region.
In its July edition of Asia Economic Monitor released on Tuesday, the regional lender upgraded its 2010 growth forecast for the 14 economies of emerging East Asia to an aggregate 8.1%, from the 7.7% projected in the bank’s Asian Development Outlook 2010 published in April. Emerging East Asia comprises 10 economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), plus China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan.
The bank said in the statement that Vietnam’s economy is on track to reach its targeted 6.5% growth for the year 2010. Vietnam is also praised for its prompt economic recovery after the downturn in 2009.
However, the bank warned of complacency.
“While most emerging East Asian economies are assured of a sharp V-shaped recovery this year, it is too early to say that the ‘V’ stands for victory,” said Srinivasa Madhur, senior director of ADB’s Office of Regional Economic Integration, which produced the AEM.
“Ensuring the sustainability of the recovery depends heavily on the correct timing, policy mix, and pace at which economic stimulus is withdrawn. The private sector must be strong enough to take over,” he added in the statement sent to the Daily.
Together, ASEAN is forecast to expand 6.7% this year before moderating somewhat in 2011.
The AEM also points to three major risks to the positive outlook for emerging East Asia: a disruption in the recovery in advanced economies; destabilizing capital flows; and unintended policy errors while unwinding the stimulus measures.
Vietnam’s economy grew an estimated 6.4% in the second quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from 5.83% recorded in the first quarter, the General Statistics Office said.
Commenting on the growth prospect for 2010, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Cao Viet Sinh said the country’s GDP could rise between 6.9% and 7.2% in the second half of the year, which may spur the economic growth for the whole year to 6.7%.
GDP rose 6.16% in the first half of 2010 from the same period last year.