Vietnam In A Changing World
By Tran Le Anh (*)
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| In the ongoing global race, Vietnam has an advantage: her young and eager-to-learn work force |
Since last year, the world has undergone profound social, political and economic changes, which arise from long-term global developments and herald new trends. A thorough grasp of these developments is vital if Vietnam wants to enter a more sustainable phase of growth.
The most significant change in the political sphere last year was the wave of anti-government uprising in North Africa and the Middle East. Three governments were toppled (Tunisia, Egypt and Libya) while tension continues to simmer in such countries as Syria. This change is ascribable to the prevalence of corruption, social injustice, economic woes and oppressive leadership in the affected countries.
Another tide of protests is the “Occupy Wall Street” movement, which erupted in New York before spreading to other major U.S. cities. The main culprit is arguably the protracted financial crisis in the U.S., which has plunged many Americans into trouble and ignited intense outrage. Such anger has culminated in demonstrations against widening income disparity, crooked interest groups and incompetent governments.
Europe, meanwhile, has been mired in an increasingly deleterious debt crisis, which is attributable mainly to several profligate governments in this region. Apart from hoping for bailout packages, these cash-strapped governments have had to adopt austerity measures, which threaten social security and exacerbate unemployment. Little wonder why people have taken to the streets in countries like Greece and Italy to voice their frustration and rage.
On another note, the world population crossed the seven-billion threshold in October 2011 and, according to the United Nations, may exceed eight billion within the next two decades. Such a relentless increase will put even more strain on non-renewable resources and the environment. Conflicts over scarce resources will erupt and social instability is likely to deepen as the poor find it much harder to eke out a living. China’s worldwide hunt for resources and swelling tension over the oil-rich East Sea attest to this gloomy reality.
Also in the spotlight is the rise of China, the world’s second largest economy and an increasingly influential player in world politics. Because of its ambitions, China has caused unease in the U.S. and East Asia. While the U.S. is saddled with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as part of its anti-terrorism campaign, China has been more and more assertive. To consolidate its status as a world superpower, the U.S. has placed greater emphasis on its role in Asia-Pacific, as evinced by negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership and U.S. President Obama’s plan to deploy 2,500 marines in Australia.
These global developments offer crucial insights. First, rising inequality is a global phenomenon and indicates that while globalization has pulled many out of absolute poverty, the gap between winners and losers has expanded and can inflict more social damage. Second, macroeconomic woes are more unpredictable and spread faster owing mainly to irresponsible governments and greedy interest groups. Third, people are less tolerant of injustice and oppression, their movements more effectively coordinated thanks to new technologies such as social networks. Fourth, countries have to grapple with shrinking resources, partly by fostering innovations that make more efficient use of resources. Global competitions will therefore be based on human creativity and capital accumulation capabilities. Finally, the rise of several developing countries means that the world will be increasingly multipolar, with existing powerhouses competing to expand or maintain their sphere of influence and, at the same time, cooperating to solve global problems.
In response to these changes, Vietnam should acknowledge that its open economy, geopolitical realities and inherent social changes mean it cannot be completely sheltered from the impacts of new global trends. The onus thus falls on the country to seize opportunities and turn challenges into strengths to nurture sustainable, equitable and democratic development.
An obvious opportunity is that Vietnam is situated in East Asia, a region registering rapid growth. This is a chance for the country to lure foreign investment, boost trade, align its legal system with international norms and participate more actively in regional production networks. To that end, judicious policies are essential, as are efforts to combat corruption and make the policymaking process more democratic to reduce the influence of interest groups.
Income inequality should be tackled and the middle class expanded to lay the foundations for a more prosperous and resilient society. The Government needs to avoid pouring money into inefficient or obsolete industries and channel investment into rural development, infrastructure projects and education, especially the vocational training segment. It is advisable to improve farmers’ access to capital.
Food security will be a matter of great importance in a country confronted with population increase and climate change. Farm land must be used efficaciously instead of feeding industrial parks and golf courses, which should sprout up only on the least fertile soil. It is necessary to severely punish projects that spell trouble for agricultural production (polluters and some mining conglomerates are some examples). This entails stringent enforcement of environmental laws, which need to be in line with global standards.
In general, laws must help to cultivate a more civilized society with such values as respect for freedom, democracy, justice, creativity, compassion and peace. By transforming itself into such a society, Vietnam will stand a better chance of settling disputes in accordance with international laws and have more say in global matters.
In view of Vietnam’s geopolitical attributes, the ongoing wrangle with China regarding islands in the East Sea is best resolved through the use of international norms. As China yearns for more influence on global affairs, it cannot blatantly ignore these norms – neither can it afford to, given its current military potential. Vietnam should therefore exert more efforts to challenge China to abide by international rules.
On another note, Vietnam can gain ground by nourishing ties with other superpowers through trade expansion, technology and knowledge transfer, and development assistance deals. It should be borne in mind, however, that when employing these measures, Vietnam must be careful not to let global giants play around with it.
Whatever challenges Vietnam faces, the country can emerge victorious and prosperous if it learns to optimize the potential of its people and rely on the pillars of a civilized society.
(*) Lasell College, Boston