HCMC – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth at 6.0% for 2024 and 6.2% for 2025, despite the economic impact of typhoon Yagi.
In its September 2024 Asian Development Outlook report, ADB cited strong trade, recovering industrial production, and rising foreign direct investment (FDI) as key drivers supporting the country’s growth.
“Vietnam’s economy rebounded strongly in the first half of 2024 and continues to expand despite global uncertainties,” said Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB’s country director for Vietnam, at a press briefing on September 25.
The industrial sector remains the main growth engine, with strong demand for electronic exports boosting production. Agriculture is stable, and the services sector is recovering, although domestic demand remains subdued.
ADB projects inflation in Vietnam to rise slightly to 4% in 2024 and 2025, influenced by potential geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, which could lead to increased oil prices.
Nguyen Ba Hung, ADB’s chief economist for Vietnam, warned that external demand from major economies remains weak. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election could disrupt trade, thus affecting exports, production, and hiring.
Hung emphasized that stronger fiscal measures, such as accelerating public investment and maintaining low interest rates, will be essential to boosting domestic demand. He stressed that coordinated policy efforts will be crucial for Vietnam’s economic recovery, especially given the combination of stable prices and weak demand.
ADB also highlighted risks from adverse weather conditions and climate change, which could disrupt supply chains and drive up commodity prices.
