HCMC – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Vietnam’s 2024 economic growth to 6.1% from its June projection of nearly 6%.
However, the IMF’s latest report did not address the economic impact of typhoon Yagi or the damage caused to 26 northern provinces.
The IMF commended Vietnam for its swift response to maintaining macroeconomic stability amid global and domestic economic challenges following the Covid-19 recovery. However, the report highlighted risks and emphasized the need for continued reforms and efforts to ensure long-term stability.
Vietnam’s recovery started in late 2023, helped by a rebound in exports, tourism, and supportive fiscal and monetary policies. Food prices have risen this year, but core inflation has stayed relatively low. The country’s current account surplus reached 5.8% of GDP in 2023, largely due to a significant decline in imports.
The report noted that Vietnam’s economic recovery would be sustained by strong external demand and ongoing stable foreign direct investment. Domestic demand is projected to recover gradually, but high corporate debt and a slow recovery in the real estate market could limit growth.
Inflation is expected to remain within the State Bank of Vietnam’s target range of 4-4.5%. However, the IMF warned that factors like slower global growth, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and trade disputes could negatively impact Vietnam’s export performance.
Weakness in the real estate and corporate bond markets could also affect credit growth and financial stability, the IMF added.
