HCMC – The Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development (IPSARD) has outlined three scenarios to assess the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on agro-forestry-fishery exports, along with policy responses to support exporters.
The U.S. announced early this month to impose a 46% tariff on imports from Vietnam but it was later paused for 90 days and a 10% tariff is applicable during this period, instead.
In the first scenario, if the 10% tariff is applied evenly across countries throughout 2025, exports and growth in the sector would be largely unaffected, according to IPSARD.
Under the second scenario, a 20% tariff could cut second-half exports by 20%, reducing annual growth in the sector by 0.15 to 0.2 percentage point to 3.8–3.85%.
In the third and worst-case scenario, the 46% tariff would reduce second-half exports by 40% and lower growth by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to 3.6–3.8%.
To mitigate risks, IPSARD called for stepped-up dialogue with the U.S. to negotiate tariff reductions or exemptions for key exports, and recommended measures to ensure origin traceability.
Short-term relief proposals include import tax cuts on raw materials, VAT and income tax deferrals, and interest rate support for affected firms. The institute also urged technology adoption to boost productivity and reduce costs.
Exporters were advised to diversify markets beyond traditional partners such as China, the U.S., ASEAN, and the EU. IPSARD suggested tapping into potential markets including Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC), as well as Latin America, parts of Africa, and countries with strong demand for Halal-certified food products.
Vietnam’s agro-forestry-fishery sector targets a growth rate of 4–4.2% in 2025. In Q1, it expanded 3.74% year-on-year, contributing 6.09% to GDP. Exports reached US$15.72 billion, up 13.1% from a year earlier.
Growth was supported by favorable weather, stable livestock production, higher forestry output, and strong aquaculture performance.
However, export volumes of some key products declined. Rice shipments fell 19.7% while fruit and vegetable exports slid 11.3%, largely due to a sharp 38.9% fall in exports to China.
