HCMC – Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has revised up its forecast for Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth to 6.9% from its previous projection of 6%, citing stronger-than-expected second-quarter performance and resilient export momentum.
In a report released on July 8 by its Global Economics and Market Research unit, UOB said Vietnam’s economy expanded by 7.96% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. This figure significantly exceeded Bloomberg’s forecast of 6.85% and UOB’s earlier projection of 6.1% for Q2. It also outpaced the revised 7.05% growth in the first quarter.
As a result, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.52% in the first half of 2024, marking the highest first-half expansion since data became available in 2011.
According to UOB, the robust growth was driven primarily by a sharp increase in export activity, as businesses rushed to fulfill orders during a 90-day window in which the U.S. temporarily replaced planned reciprocal tariffs with a baseline 10% tax rate.
Vietnam’s export value in the first six months reached US$219 billion, up 14.4% year-on-year, while imports rose 17.9% to US$212 billion. These figures closely align with the country’s full-year targets of 14% export growth and 16% import growth.
UOB analysts noted that recent progress in trade negotiations with the U.S. suggests the most challenging phase may be over. However, tax policy remains a significant obstacle to Vietnam’s export sector.
Following the rêcnt U.S. announcement regarding tariff adjustments, UOB has revised its 2025 export outlook to the U.S. from an expected 20% decline to a 5% increase. However, this is a modest gain compared to the sharp 23% rise seen in 2024.
For the remainder of the year, UOB projects quarterly GDP growth to average around 6.4%.
Despite global uncertainties, UOB anticipates that Vietnam will attract around US$20 billion in disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024, signaling continued investor confidence in the country’s growth trajectory.
