HCMC – Vietnam’s gross domestic product is expected to grow 6.7% in 2026, driven by resilient exports, infrastructure investment and stable domestic demand, according to HSBC.
The bank said Vietnam is likely to maintain growth momentum after expanding over 8% in 2025, despite global trade uncertainties and lingering tariff risks.
HSBC expects export performance in 2026 to be supported by Vietnam’s rising market share in global trade, particularly in electronics, which now account for about 35% of total exports.
The bank said demand linked to artificial intelligence and semiconductors is expected to help cushion Vietnam from a broader global trade slowdown. It noted that Vietnam’s growth followed an estimated 8% expansion in 2025, which it said likely made the country Asia’s fastest-growing economy.
Infrastructure spending is also expected to remain a key growth driver, with authorities continuing to push major projects to support investment and domestic activity.
Inflation is forecast to remain largely benign at around 3.5% in 2026, benefiting from low oil prices and stable food costs.
Vietnam is set to enter 2026 with a major political milestone, as the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam is scheduled for January 19–25.
The congress, held every five years, will select new top leadership and set socioeconomic targets for the next five to ten years, including medium-term growth and income goals.
HSBC said economic policy is widely expected to remain consistent regardless of leadership changes.
Vietnam’s National Assembly has approved a growth target of at least 10% for 2026, with GDP per capita projected at US$5,400–5,500, according to official targets cited in the report.
