HCMC – Vietnam’s economic growth may fall short of 10% this year, with GDP projected at about 9% and inflation expected to exceed 4%, said Can Van Luc, member of the Policy Advisory Council to the prime minister and BIDV chief economist.
“This year it’s very hard for Vietnam to achieve 10% GDP growth,” Luc said at the Vietnam–Australia Green Transition Forum 2026 on April 9. “We are forecasting about 9% GDP growth for Vietnam. Inflation will be more than 4%.”
He attributed this projection to global economic uncertainties, particularly the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy prices and financial markets.
Under a baseline scenario in which the conflict eases within two months, Vietnam’s GDP growth could be reduced by around 0.7 percentage point, while inflation may increase by about 0.5 percentage point.
That outlook makes it difficult for the economy to meet earlier expectations of double-digit expansion, he said.
Vietnam’s exposure to energy imports is a key factor. Oil and gas imports account for about 2% of GDP, with roughly 55% sourced from the Middle East, leaving the country moderately affected by price shocks.
Recent data showed the economy has been recovering. In the first quarter, exports rose about 19% year-on-year, imports increased 37%, new foreign investment approvals climbed 43%, and private consumption grew around 11%, according to Luc.
Despite the short-term pressures, authorities are continuing with structural reforms aimed at supporting longer-term growth.
