As of now, the 2025 target of more than 16% credit growth is almost certainly within reach. Even so, the picture is not entirely bright. Explaining the misalignment Official data from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) showed that as of September 29, 2025, credit growth for the entire economy reached 13.37%, with full-year growth forecast at 19–20%. This level is considered appropriate for this year’s GDP growth target of 8%. According to the SBV, many positive signs have been recorded, such as loans to the manufacturing–business sector accounting for 78% of total outstanding loans nationwide, and credit flowing into high-tech and supporting industries rising faster than average, at 25% and 23.14% respectively. The 2025 credit growth target is clearly attainable, and credit flows have been directed toward priority sectors. However, a few signals still warrant caution. The first concern is deposit growth. Updated SBV data through July 2025 shows that household deposits in the commercial banking system rose nearly 9.7% from the beginning of the year. According to Viet Dragon Securities, based on information from listed banks, the figure as of September 2025 was about 11.4% — lower than the credit growth rate of 14.5%. Dr. Chau Dinh Linh […]
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