HCMC – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast to 6.3% for this year and 6% for next year, which is below the Government’s target of 8.3-8.5%.
In its recently released July edition of the “Asian Development Outlook,” the bank revised down its economic growth projections for countries in the Asia-Pacific region due to declining exports, increased U.S. import tariffs, global trade uncertainties, and weakening domestic demand.
Vietnam’s GDP is now forecast to grow by 6.3% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, down by 0.3 and 0.5 percentage point compared to the projections made three months ago, respectively. Inflation is also expected to ease to 3.9% this year and 3.8% next year.
ADB experts believe the domestic economy is still expected to remain resilient in 2025 and 2026, despite potential short-term pressures from tariffs.
Strong growth in exports and imports, along with high disbursement of foreign investment capital, contributed to boosting economic growth in the first half of this year.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments rose by 32.6%, and disbursements increased by 8.1%, reflecting international investors’ confidence in Vietnam’s economic prospects.
Exports have grown as a response to tariff uncertainties, but sustaining this momentum in the second half of the year may prove challenging.
The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. on Vietnamese exports is expected to dampen export revenues through 2026. Meanwhile, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) signals a slowdown in industrial production since late 2024.
Although tariff-related uncertainties pose risks, well-executed domestic reforms could play a key role in cushioning their impact.
