The draft Political Report of the first Party Congress of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) for the 2025–2030 term sets an ambitious goal: an average annual GRDP growth rate of 10–11% and total investment capital equivalent to 35–40% of GRDP over the five-year period Based on the results achieved since 2010—particularly the stagnation following the Covid-19 pandemic—mobilizing resources at the level proposed in the draft will be highly challenging. This article analyzes possible scenarios and the city’s capacity to mobilize development capital for 2026–2030, while suggesting solutions to enhance capital mobilization. Achievements so far According to official statistics, HCMC’s total investment capital in 2010, 2019, and the estimated figure for 2024 were VND236 trillion, VND604 trillion, and VND631 trillion, respectively. The average annual growth rates were 11% for 2010–2019, 1.1% for 2019–2024, and 7.3% for 2010–2024. The city’s GRDP values in 2010, 2019, and 2024 were VND840 trillion, VND2,050 trillion, and VND2,716 trillion, respectively. Nominal GRDP grew at an average annual rate of 10.4% during 2010–2019, 7.3% during 2019–2024, and 8.7% over the entire 2010–2024 period. Accordingly, the ratio of total investment to GRDP stood at 28.1% in 2010, 29.5% in 2019, and 23.2% in 2024. This means the ratio […]