In mid-October, the price of green coconuts on farms across the Mekong Delta dropped by nearly 50%, following a wave of returns from China. Around the same time, durian prices in Dak Lak Province plummeted by 60–65%, triggered by a domino effect as laboratories were forced to temporarily shut down for maintenance after prolonged periods of overwork. On November 1, durian shipments successfully cleared customs, while coconut shipments remained stalled. The underlying issue behind this disruption—and the rapid rise of Vietnam’s two billion-dollar export fruits—is what experts call “overheated” growth. This phenomenon stems from two critical challenges facing Vietnam’s agricultural exports: inconsistent product quality and inadequate certification standards. Coconuts of mixed quality Over the past two years, the United States and China have emerged as key growth drivers for Vietnam’s coconut industry, particularly in the fresh coconut segment. In July 2023, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) approved the import of fresh Vietnamese coconuts into the U.S. The following month, China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) conducted field inspections of coconut-growing regions and export packaging facilities in Vietnam. However, it was not until August 2024 that Vietnam and China officially signed a trade protocol. […]