After a promising end to last year, Vietnam’s rice export prices have been declining since early this year. Will this decline reverse in the months ahead? A prolonged decline Since India’s decision to ban non-basmati white rice exports in July 2023, the global rice market has remained active as rice importers have rushed to seek supplies from other exporting countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan to ensure food security. For example, Indonesia overtook China as Vietnam’s second-largest rice buyer last year, purchasing nearly 1.17 million tons of Vietnamese rice worth over US$640 million. This marked a 9.8-fold rise in volume and a 10.9-fold increase in value against 2022. The surge in market demand caused Vietnam’s rice export prices to rise sharply last year. According to statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the average export price of Vietnamese rice was US$512 per ton in January 2023. However, after India halted non-basmati white rice exports on July 20, it reached US$549 per ton. Vietnam’s average rice export price continued to rise, reaching US$593 per ton in August 2023, and further climbing to US$618, US$640, US$667, and US$688 per ton in the following months of last year. In January 2024, the […]