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Friday, July 11, 2025

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A rocky second half

On May 5, 2025, the National Assembly started its ninth sitting, with a packed agenda that included a supplementary review of the 2024 socio-economic development plan and an assessment of 2025’s progress to date. The NA Economic and Financial Committee’s report spanned 10 A4 pages, with three dedicated to key achievements and five analyzing the economic challenges anticipated in the latter half of the year. This imbalance suggests that significant underlying issues remain unresolved, posing potential challenges for both businesses and citizens. It also reflects the committee’s intent to provide a more in-depth and realistic foundation for parliamentary debate and the development of effective solutions. Stalling in the three traditional growth engines A core concern is that economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 was below expectations, piling pressure on macroeconomic management in the rest of the year. With GDP growth at 6.93% in Q1, the remaining quarters must achieve an average of 8.4% growth to meet the full-year target of 8% or higher. This task becomes especially daunting when examining the three traditional growth drivers—public investment, export and domestic consumption—all of which are showing signs of slowing. Public investment, which normally plays a leading role in driving growth, […]
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