In 2023, Vietnam’s merchandise exports and imports dropped by 6.6% year-on-year to an estimated US$683 billion. Export revenue fell by 4.4% to US$355.5 billion while imports edged down by 8.9% to US$327.5 billion, resulting in a record trade surplus of US$28 billion. What challenges might Vietnam’s merchandise trade face in 2024? Multiple influencing factors In 2024, based on the nation’s GDP growth target of 6% to 6.5%, the Ministry of Industry and Trade aims to increase merchandise export turnover by about 6% to US$377 billion. Although the country could continue enjoying a trade surplus, the figure might decrease to only about US$15 billion. This somewhat indicates that merchandise trade activities in 2024 will encounter several challenges. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s assessment, export orders for merchandise have gradually recovered since the fourth quarter of 2023, which is one of the factors that instills confidence in export businesses, anticipating a brighter market outlook in 2024. However, many forecasts also indicate that the global economy will still be growing slowly, which will continue to affect trade. According to recent surveys by Reuters, the global economy is forecasted to achieve an average growth rate of 2.6% in 2024, slightly lower […]
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