Setting a target of double-digit GDP growth for the 2026–2030 period is a major aspiration for Vietnam—one that aligns with the country’s vision of becoming an upper-middle-income economy by 2030 and a developed nation by 2045. However, achieving such high and sustainable growth will require Vietnam to confront a series of unprecedented challenges amid a rapidly changing and increasingly complex global economic environment. Double-digit growth demands not only an expansion of production capacity, but more importantly improvements in the quality of growth, innovation in the development model, and the resolution of long-standing structural bottlenecks. This article analyzes the key challenges that Vietnam must correctly identify and effectively address in order to realize this ambitious goal. First, the risk of global economic slowdown and geopolitical volatility The 2025–2030 period is widely forecast to be one of sluggish global economic growth. International organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and OECD project global growth of only 2.5–3%, significantly lower than the 3.5–4% average recorded during 2000–2015. Major economies including the United States, the European Union, and Japan are all showing signs of slower growth due to prolonged high interest rates, population aging, and stagnant productivity. At the same time, […]
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