Having risen by more than 3.6% in the first nine months of 2025 under the influence of both domestic and external factors, the USD/VND exchange rate has gradually stabilized. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) entering a rate-cutting cycle is creating more favorable conditions for exchange rate stability in the remaining months of the year. Pressure to “buy time” for exchange rate stability As of the end of September 2025, the USD/VND exchange rate had risen by about 3.6%, reflecting pressure from multiple sides. Externally, the Fed’s prolonged high interest rate levels narrowed, and at times reversed, the interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and the Vietnamese dong when VND interest rates were lower. This encouraged investors to hold foreign currencies and shift investments toward the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions have caused global investment capital to flow out of emerging markets, including Vietnam. Capital outflow pressure has increased as investor sentiment turns defensive. Notably, the U.S. imposing reciprocal tariffs on goods originating from or transshipped through Vietnam—alongside those from several other countries—has led many foreign direct investment (FDI) corporations to temporarily halt disbursements while reassessing the global trade environment before taking their next moves. This not only affects […]
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