Amid the prospect that global central banks may soon return to monetary tightening, it is understandable that Vietnam’s monetary policy is coming under pressure. Although policy rates have not yet changed, early signs of tightening have already emerged. Easing expectations shift to a defensive stance As of March 23, 2026, Brent crude oil prices had surged nearly 56% compared to the end of February 2026, approaching the US$110 per barrel mark again. WTI crude has also surpassed US$100 per barrel, marking a 50% increase over the same period. The energy price shock stemming from conflict in the Middle East is becoming more evident than ever, with over 10 million barrels of oil effectively wiped out due to sudden output declines in Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, while 20% of global crude oil and LNG supply remains frozen as the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked. The risk of global stagflation—slowing growth coupled with high inflation—is looming large. Many central banks have begun to act, while market sentiment has rapidly shifted from expectations of “rate cuts” to an extremely defensive posture against inflation risks. Strategic reports suggest that the current disruption in energy supply is the most severe since the […]
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