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Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Oversupply pushes rice export prices lower

By Trung Chanh

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CAN THO – Vietnam’s rice export price averaged out at about US$452 per ton in the first half of February 2026, down US$24 from January, as global supply increased and major buyers reduced purchases.

Preliminary data from the Department of Vietnam Customs showed that more than 484,000 tons of rice were exported in the first 15 days of February, generating US$218.9 million in revenue.

In January, exports totaled over 651,000 tons worth US$309.8 million, with an average price of nearly US$476 per ton.

From January 1 to February 15, rice exports reached more than 1.13 million tons worth over US$528.8 million. The average export price during the period was above US$465 per ton, about US$44 lower than the 2025 average.

The decline comes as the global rice market faces ample supply and weaker import demand.

The weighted average price index for global white rice is trading at around US$398 per ton, down US$2 from the previous week and US$72 lower than a year earlier.

In its February 2026 Rice Outlook report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected global rice trade in the 2025-2026 marketing year at 62.8 million tons, a record high.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that India is expected to harvest a record 230.6 million tons of paddy in the 2025-2026 season, supported by a strong Kharif crop. India’s rice exports in 2026 are forecast at about 23.6 million tons, up 9% year-on-year.

On the demand side, the Philippines plans to limit rice imports in March and April to around 150,000 tons per month, compared with a previous monthly average of 400,000 tons.

Meanwhile, the 2025-2026 winter-spring crop in the Mekong Delta is entering peak harvest, adding to supply as exporters face pressure to secure orders.

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