In the first half of 2025, the dominant keywords across most analytical reports I read were “tariffs,” “trade war,” and “U.S.–China confrontation.” At that time, many institutions were pessimistic, forecasting that global trade growth would fall close to zero, or even slip into negative territory. Alongside this, numerous organizations sharply downgraded their global and country-level growth projections. And yet… 2025: a stormy first half, a resilient second half In reality, the global economy has proven more resilient than analysts had expected. After the tariff shock in April 2025, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, the world went through months of tension, but the outcome was not as dire as feared. Global trade delivered positive surprises as companies proactively rolled out diversification strategies and rerouted their main trade flows, while also adopting measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Governments, too, actively negotiated with the United States to keep tariffs as low as possible, in exchange for certain commitments that have yet to materialize in any meaningful way. According to a report released in early December by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), “if forecasts prove accurate, global trade this year will surpass US$35 trillion […]
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