HCMC – Soybean prices climbed nearly 2.5% to US$401 per ton at the close of trading on February 4, drawing strong investor attention.
The rally was driven by signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which triggered a wave of buying in agricultural commodities. In contrast, copper prices came under pressure as investors reassessed the outlook for U.S. tariff policy. Mixed movements across commodity groups limited gains in the MXV-Index, which edged up 0.3% to 2,540 points.
The Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) said optimism surrounding direct talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has become a key driver behind the soybean price surge. U.S. officials confirmed on social media that the two leaders discussed plans to significantly increase U.S. agricultural exports to China.
China is reportedly considering commitments to purchase around 20 million tons of soybeans in the 2025–2026 crop year and about 25 million tons in 2026–2027. These potential deals have quickly reversed market sentiment, offsetting earlier concerns about oversupply.
Previously, soybean prices had been weighed down by expectations of record output in South America. However, large-scale purchasing commitments from China have temporarily overshadowed supply concerns and strengthened expectations that U.S. soybeans could regain market share in China.
In addition to diplomatic developments, the U.S. clean fuel tax credit policy known as 45Z is reshaping demand for soybean oil. The policy encourages biofuel producers to prioritize domestically sourced feedstocks to maximize tax incentives.
Rising demand from the renewable energy sector has pushed soybean oil prices to their highest level in five months. The policy shift has helped ease inventory pressure and establish more stable demand, supporting profit margins for U.S. oilseed crushers despite fluctuations in raw material costs.
Market participants are also closely watching the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report, scheduled for release on the evening of February 4, Vietnam time. Analysts expect U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending January 29 to range between 400,000 and 1.6 million tons.
