HCMC – Vietnam’s economy is expected to grow by 6.7% this year, according to Standard Chartered’s latest macroeconomic update, falling short of the National Assembly’s target of at least 8%.
The bank projects growth will slow from 7.5% year-on-year in the first half to 6.1% in the second. Meanwhile, the Government of Vietnam is aiming for higher expansion, with Party General Secretary To Lam at a recent meeting calling for concerted efforts to achieve GDP growth above 8% this year, paving the way for potential double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030.
Inflation rose to 3.6% in January, up from 2.9% in December, driven by higher transport and food prices during the Lunar New Year, according to data from the General Statistics Office. Standard Chartered warns that inflationary pressures could intensify due to rising costs in healthcare, housing, and construction materials. The central bank may raise interest rates by 50 basis points in the second quarter if inflation accelerates.
Vietnam’s large trade surplus with the U.S. could attract scrutiny under the Trump 2.0 administration. Potential changes in product labeling rules may impact Vietnam’s export supply chains, while increased global production shifts to Vietnam could raise concerns about overcapacity.
The Vietnamese dong remains a managed currency, helping limit short-term foreign exchange volatility. Standard Chartered expects the State Bank of Vietnam to accumulate foreign reserves to prevent excessive appreciation.
Tourism is projected to be a key growth driver, supported by rising international arrivals, particularly from China. Credit growth is forecast at 16.0% in 2025, up from 15.1% last year, though lending remains cautious.
Lower U.S. interest rates may help reduce capital outflows, but Vietnam’s low import cover remains a challenge. Standard Chartered also sees oil prices as a key risk factor for economic stability.
“The Government’s focus on stronger economic growth may support low interest rates in the near term,” said Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered. “However, we anticipate rate normalization in Q2, with inflation, Fed policy, and the performance of the dong shaping monetary decisions,” he added.
