HCMC – Standard Chartered Bank has cut its 2025 economic growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.1%, down from its previous estimate of 6.7%, citing a slowdown in momentum and a softer outlook for trade in the second half of the year.
In its latest macroeconomic update, the bank projected Vietnam’s growth would ease to 4.9% year-on-year in the second half of 2025. However, it noted that the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain solid.
“Export growth picked up in early 2025, and Vietnam continues to post modest trade surpluses,” the report said. Imports also rose, particularly in raw materials, production equipment, and spare parts.
Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of US$2.8 billion in June, helping support the Vietnamese dong and improve external balances. But retail sales growth moderated to 8.3% year-on-year, pointing to softer domestic demand.
The bank also revised its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.5%, from 3.8%. The upward reversal in inflation has stalled in recent months, with headline inflation staying below 4.0% y/y for the 11th consecutive month in June.
However, demand-driven inflation risks remain. The continued upward momentum in prices and ongoing currency weakness may limit the space for rate cuts. Standard Chartered expects the refinancing rate to remain unchanged in the rest of this year.
