HCMC – A Standard Chartered Bank report said Vietnam’s economic data for October reflected a slowdown from September, though key sectors showed resilience.
While the bank had previously revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam upward to 6.8% from 6.0%, it now expects growth momentum to moderate after a robust third quarter, projecting a Q4 growth rate of around 6.9%.
According to Standard Chartered data, retail sales growth slowed to 6.2% year-on-year in October, down from 7.6% in the previous month. Export growth also eased to 6.2%, from 10.7% in September, although electronics exports may have continued their upward trend.
Imports and industrial production are estimated to have risen by 4.0% and 9.2%, respectively, with credit growth steady at around 9% as of September.
Vietnam’s external sector remains robust, having posted trade surpluses for several months this year. The October trade surplus is expected to have widened to US$3.8 billion, up from US$2.3 billion in September.
“Despite a cautious outlook for Vietnam’s near term, the economy has a record of surpassing expectations,” said Tim Leelahaphan, Standard Chartered’s economist for Thailand and Vietnam. “Government measures to stimulate growth may help sustain low interest rates in the coming months.”
Though inflation has recently eased, it is estimated to have increased to 3.0% in October, with a gradual rise anticipated through 2025. Standard Chartered projects that a potential Vietnamese dong depreciation and rising inflation may prompt the State Bank of Vietnam to increase interest rates by 50 basis points in Q2 next year.
