HCMC – Vietnam’s GDP is projected to grow by 6.7% in 2025, with growth moderating from 7.5% year-on-year in the first half to 6.1% in the second, according to Standard Chartered’s latest macroeconomic update released on December 12.
The bank highlighted Vietnam’s resilient economic performance, with exports increasing by 14.9% and imports by 16.8% year-on-year from January to October 2024.
The manufacturing sector has demonstrated robust growth, supported by accommodative monetary policy that has bolstered the country’s economic recovery.
Foreign direct investment remains a key driver, with disbursed foreign capital rising by 8.8% year-on-year and pledged capital up by 1.9%.
Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered, expects the State Bank of Vietnam to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in the second quarter of 2025 to address potential inflationary pressures.
While lower U.S. dollar rates may reduce capital outflows, Vietnam’s sustained trade surplus and strong tourism are likely to support the dong. However, challenges such as low import cover persist.
The bank forecasts a weakening of the U.S. dollar against the Vietnamese dong, with the exchange rate projected at VND25,250 by the end of 2024 and VND25,450 by the second quarter of 2025. This outlook is influenced by anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Recent Fed rate cuts are expected to support Asian currencies, including the dong. However, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data has created a less favorable environment for Asian foreign exchange markets.
Trade policy uncertainties and inflationary risks could further complicate currency stability in Asia, the report noted.
