HCMC – Standard Chartered Bank has revised up its forecast for Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth to 6.8% from its previous estimate of 6.0%, citing stronger-than-expected performance in the third quarter.
The upward adjustment reflects improvements across multiple sectors, including imports and exports, retail sales, real estate, tourism, construction, and manufacturing, according to the bank’s economists.
Improvements in trade, business activity, and foreign investment are expected to be key growth drivers in 2025 and beyond. Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 8.0% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, while pledged foreign investment increased 12.0% year-on-year.
Manufacturing continues to lead Vietnam’s economic growth, with exports surging 15% year-on-year during the same period.
Inflation has eased recently, and Standard Chartered maintains its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 at 3.7% and 3.8%, respectively. However, potential price pressures remain in areas such as education, housing and construction materials, healthcare, and food.
“While we remain cautious about Vietnam’s near-term economic outlook, we acknowledge its resilience and potential to outperform market expectations,” said Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered Bank.
Leelahaphan added that the Government’s push for stronger growth could support low interest rates in the near term, with the Federal Reserve’s actions also likely to influence the State Bank of Vietnam’s monetary policy decisions.
Standard Chartered now expects a 50-basis-point rate hike in Vietnam next year, instead of the previously anticipated increase in Q4 2024.
