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Tuesday, July 15, 2025

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monetary policy

The SBV’s policy playbook put to the test

The 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration expires on July 9, 2025. This is a focal point for the markets in the coming days and might be one of the key reasons the exchange rate between the Vietnam dong and the U.S. dollar has come under considerable pressure recently. Diverging trends The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined a further 2.6% in June 2025 to its lowest point in three years at 96.8. This marked the sixth consecutive month of dollar decline. Compared to its 2025 peak of 110, the greenback has lost 12% of its value. According to a recent survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), the U.S. dollar has fallen from the most favored reserve currency last year to seventh place today. One-third of the 75 surveyed central banks — which collectively manage about US$5 trillion in reserves — said they plan to increase gold holdings in the next one to two years, while investors outside the U.S. are leading a trend of divesting from dollar-denominated assets. In contrast, the euro and Chinese yuan have emerged as top alternatives. Yet despite the weakening of the dollar on international markets, the dollar/dong exchange […]
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Shrinking surplus squeezes rate-cut room

The Donald Trump administration has paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Still, this move does not alter the U.S. objective of narrowing its trade...

Falling interest rates: a boon or a bane?

Deposit and lending rates are showing signs of stabilizing and gradually decreasing, following a significant upward trend that had persisted from Q4 2024 to...

A new wave of deposit rate cuts?

A growing wave of deposit interest rate cuts is sweeping the market following the central bank’s meeting on February 25. Is this just a...

Credit-driven growth

It is undeniable that Vietnam’s economic growth is increasingly reliant on monetary policy, while the effectiveness and ripple effects of fiscal policy have yet...

Balance of payments: Insights and challenges

The overall balance of payments showed a more positive trend in the third quarter of 2024, with the deficit narrowing significantly. However, persistent challenges...

Vietnam eyes 8% GDP growth in 2025

HCMC – Vietnam is targeting economic growth of at least 8% in 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh announced in a directive urging tighter...

Exchange rate pressure mounts

Recently, commercial banks have listed the selling price of the U.S. dollar at a level close to the ceiling set by the State Bank...

Opportunities from expansionary monetary policy

With U.S. dollar interest rates now getting lower, foreign exchange risks have eased, potentially redirecting foreign investor funds to emerging and developing economies, including...

Is business confidence back?

The number of businesses resuming operations continues to grow strongly. What factors are driving this trend, and is this recovery truly sustainable? Business confidence on...

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