HCMC – Vietnam’s economy maintained stable growth in the first quarter of this year, but escalating global trade tensions and the new U.S. tariff policy are dampening the outlook for the rest of the year.
Rising pressure from U.S. tariffs
There is a 90-day pause on the U.S. reciprocal tariff of 46% on goods from Vietnam, and during the period, a reduced 10% rate is in force. The move paves the way for further trade talks between the two countries.
Tariff tensions extend beyond Vietnam, as key U.S. trading partners, such as the European Union and China, have also been adjusting their reciprocal measures in response to the recent actions by Washington.
Smaller export-reliant economies like Vietnam are likely to face stronger headwinds. In a recent report, Maybank Securities has cut its 2024 growth forecast for the ASEAN-6 bloc to 4.2% from 4.7%, citing weaker export and investment prospects if the new U.S. tariff policy comes into force.
Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that Vietnam’s key economic indicators in March showed signs of overall stability. However, he emphasized that trade uncertainties and currency volatility remain key risks that could shape future policy responses.
Government reaffirms growth target of 8% or higher for 2025
Despite rising global trade risks since the end of the first quarter, Vietnam’s Government has reaffirmed its GDP growth target of 8% or above in 2025. Alongside ongoing tariff talks, authorities plan to roll out measures to sustain economic growth momentum.
According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 6.93% in the first quarter of 2025, the strongest Q1 growth rate in the 2020–2025 period. However, this still falls short of forecasts issued by some international financial institutions.
This shortfall is partly due to heightened global economic instability, which continues to weigh on trade and investment. Meanwhile, many domestic enterprises remain under pressure, although several sectors have begun to recover.
In HCMC, gross regional domestic product (GRDP) rose by 7.51% in Q1. Total outstanding credit increased by 1.39% compared to the end of 2024 and by 11.82% year-on-year. According to Nguyen Duc Lenh, deputy director of the State Bank of Vietnam’s Region 2 Branch, this marks a strong rebound compared to the 0.96% and 1.25% increases recorded in the same period last year.
Signs of capital flow recovery are a positive signal, aligning with the banking sector’s higher credit growth target for 2025 and the Government’s plan to expedite public investment disbursement.
However, experts stress that to ensure sustainable growth, capital supply must be consistent, long-term, and of high quality.
As global trade tensions continue to escalate, investment flows may be restructured. Vietnam’s economic strategy must be carefully recalibrated to preserve stability amid heightened global uncertainty.
Amid a complex but promising macroeconomic outlook, the Saigon Times Group will hold its annual Finance & Real Estate Forum 2025 under the theme “Laying the Foundation For A New Growth Cycle,” offering insights into market trends and strategic directions in the years to come.
The forum will feature two main sessions. The first will address the impacts of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, production restructuring strategies, capital flow orientation, and solutions to mitigate trade-related risks.
The second session will explore the effects of ongoing trade tensions on Vietnam’s ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and propose strategies to escape the “offside trap,” setting the stage for strong growth in the industrial real estate sector.
Finance & Real Estate Forum 2025
The event is scheduled to take place in HCMC on May 8, bringing together over 120 guests, including renowned experts from Vietnam and abroad, senior officials from relevant ministries and agencies, and executives from real estate firms, commercial banks, and various financial institutions. For those interested in joining the event, please register at: https://forms.gle/FwqLtsZf5L7shY4FA
