Vietnam’s economy is facing uncertainties in a Trump 2.0 era, with trade emerging as an area of critical concern. Experts emphasize the need to bolster domestic growth drivers, instead of relying heavily on exports. Trade outlook dims The U.S. election victory of Donald Trump has raised questions about how shifting international trade dynamics might affect Vietnam’s growth trajectory in 2024 and beyond. At the Vietnam Listed Company Awards, Dominic Scriven, chairman of Dragon Capital, outlined two possible scenarios for Vietnam’s economy in this context. Under a moderate impact scenario, GDP growth is forecasted at 6.8% in 2025. However, a more adverse outcome could see growth slowing to 5.6%. According to Dragon Capital’s report, optimistic growth in 2025 hinges on exports, projected to grow by 11.7%, exceeding the 9.8% estimate for 2024. Conversely, the negative scenario predicts a 1% drop in exports, compounded by a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI), a key driver of Vietnam’s economic growth. Vietnam’s colossal trade surplus with the U.S.—the third largest after China and Mexico—positions the country as a significant player in international trade but also raises vulnerabilities. Adding to this is the increasing inflow of FDI from China and a doubling of Vietnam’s imports […]
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