HCMC – Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has projected Vietnam’s GDP would grow 7.1% in the first quarter of 2025, maintaining a positive yet cautious outlook on the country’s economic trajectory.
The General Statistics Office of Vietnam has reported several bright spots in the first two months of the year, including the highest industrial production growth in five years, a 12% rise in import-export turnover, and a 21.7% surge in public investment compared to the same period last year.
However, UOB remains cautious, citing Vietnam’s highly open economy as a vulnerability to potential global trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
The report also noted that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is placing a renewed focus on reducing the U.S. trade deficit, which has nearly quadrupled since 2016, reaching US$124 billion in 2024.
For the full year of 2025, UOB maintains its GDP growth forecast at 7%, but warns that the Vietnamese dong is likely to continue depreciating, potentially hitting VND26,000 per U.S. dollar in the third quarter.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is expected to hold the refinancing rate at 4.5% amid inflationary pressures, while the local currency may remain under depreciation pressure due to global economic conditions.
Addressing Vietnam’s National Assembly’s ambitious economic targets, which include at least 8% growth in 2025 and double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030, UOB emphasized that relying solely on exports and manufacturing would not be enough.
To sustain high growth rates and mitigate risks from potential trade downturns, Vietnam must strengthen capital investment, particularly in the public sector, the report suggested.
