HCMC – Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its forecast for Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth to 7.5%, pointing to the economy’s resilience and dynamism despite tariff risks and uncertainties.
In a report released by its Global Economics and Market Research unit, UOB said that Vietnam’s GDP grew sharply by 7.96% in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing Bloomberg’s forecast of 6.85% and UOB’s own earlier estimate of 6.1%.
The country’s economy expanded by 7.52% in the first half of 2025, marking the quickest January-June pace since 2011.
The strong first-half performance was driven mainly by a 14% year-on-year jump in exports, supported by improved market sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump temporarily lowered reciprocal tariffs to a baseline rate of 10% for trading partners over a 90-day period.
Tariff uncertainties have eased in the second half of 2025 since the U.S. finalized country-specific rates ahead of the August 1 deadline, setting Vietnam’s tariff at 20%.
According to UOB experts, Vietnam’s economy has remained resilient and dynamic, with exports performing strongly despite potential risks from weaker U.S. demand under tariff-induced price pressures.
Vietnam could realistically achieve an average annual growth rate of around 7% between 2026 and 2045, provided that ongoing reforms, liberalization efforts, and the momentum in investment and trade are sustained and effectively executed, said Suan Teck Kin, executive director of Global Economics and Markets Research at UOB.
The inflation has yet to show clear signs of cooling. By July, cumulative headline inflation stood at 3.3%, compared with the 2024 average of 3.6% and 3.26% in 2023.
Given the favorable growth outlook for the second half of 2025 and ongoing pressure on the Vietnamese dong’s exchange rate, UOB experts believe the central bank has little room to ease monetary policy. As a result, UOB expects the refinancing rate to remain steady at 4.5%.
