HCMC – Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has revised down Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 by 0.1 percentage point to 5.9%, citing the huge impact of typhoon Yagi.
Although Vietnam recorded strong growth of 6.93% in the second quarter of 2024, UOB researchers do not expect this momentum to continue into the second half of the year.
The disruptions triggered by Yagi, particularly in northern Vietnam, are expected to impact late Q3 and early Q4, reflected in reduced output and damage to production facilities, agriculture and services.
As a result, UOB forecast GDP growth to slow to 5.7% in Q3 and 5.2% in Q4, down from the earlier predictions of 6% and 5.4%. Despite the downward revision, the 5.9% growth forecast still represents a positive recovery compared to 2023, UOB noted.
Preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Planning and Investment showed that typhoon Yagi caused about VND40 trillion in losses, affecting 26 northern provinces that account for 41% of the country’s GDP and 40% of its population.
Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung warned that economic growth in the second half of the year would slow, with GDP growth for 2024 expected to decrease by 0.15 percentage point compared to the earlier projection, landing at an estimated 6.8-7%.
