HCMC – Gold could reach US$6,000 per ounce by the first quarter of 2027, while Brent crude is expected to hover near US$80 a barrel in the near term amid Middle East tensions, according to United Overseas Bank (UOB).
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran pushed Brent crude to about US$82 a barrel in early Asian trading before easing to around US$76, roughly 4% higher than last weekend’s close of about US$73. At the start of the year, Brent traded near US$60 and later climbed above US$70 as geopolitical risks increased, reported the Vietnam News Agency.
Global gold prices rose above US$5,300 per ounce on the morning of March 3 as investors moved into safe-haven assets, while Vietnam’s domestic gold prices tracked global gains to hit a historic peak of around VND190 million per tael.
UOB assessed that it is too early to expect oil to surge to US$100 a barrel. The bank noted that current conditions differ from February 2022, when Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine caused a major global supply shock.
A key threshold has not been crossed. Iran has not directly targeted major regional energy facilities or oil tankers in the Gulf. Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of global oil supply, could drive prices sharply higher, but that risk remains contained.
Although no blockade has been announced, several shipping companies have suspended operations in the area for safety reasons, leading to congestion at both ends of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Some major aviation hubs, including Dubai International Airport, have reported disruptions.
Supply conditions remain relatively stable. OPEC agreed on March 1 to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in April, above earlier market expectations. Since implementing voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2023, the group has restored about 1.65 million barrels per day.
OPEC said it will continue monitoring market developments and retain flexibility to adjust output to support stability.
UOB expects geopolitical risks to keep Brent near US$80 per barrel in the second and third quarters of 2026. As tensions ease and supply increases, prices could fall to around US$70 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
