Amid escalating U.S.-Israel strikes against Iran, which commands the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supplies pass, concerns are mounting over the ripple effects on the global economy. In an interview with The Saigon Times, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan outlined the specific channels through which the conflict could transmit risks to Vietnam, offering quantitative forecasts for the country’s economic growth and export performance under different scenarios. The Saigon Times: What is your assessment of the indirect repercussions for the Vietnamese economy following strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran? Could you provide an estimation of the potential impact under both short-term and protracted conflict scenarios? Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan: In my view, U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran would trigger a geopolitical shock transmitted to Vietnam primarily through indirect channels—notably surging oil prices, elevated maritime insurance and freight costs, and a shift in global risk appetite—rather than direct bilateral trade. Given Iran’s command over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for one-fifth of global oil supply, any disruption to transit would lead to a spike in energy and logistics costs. This poses a significant risk to Vietnam’s highly open economy, […]
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