HCMC – Vietnam has officially done away with its long-standing two-child policy, a significant shift in its population strategy as the country is grappling with a fast-declining birth rate and an accelerating aging population.
The National Assembly Standing Committee approved an amendment to Article 10 of the 2003 Population Ordinance on June 3, with the new regulation taking effect immediately. This legislative change marks a pivotal move from primarily controlling population numbers to fostering sustainable and comprehensive population development, reported the local media.
Under the revised ordinance, couples and individuals now have the autonomy to decide the timing of childbirth, the number of children they have, and the spacing between births, based on factors such as age, health, education, employment, income, and child-rearing capacity, under the principle of equality.
The previous regulation, in force since 2009, generally restricted most couples and individuals to having only one or two children, with specific exceptions determined by the Government.
This policy overhaul is deemed a response to current demographic realities. Vietnam is facing the dual challenge of a fertility rate falling below replacement levels and an increasingly aging population.
Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan said that several countries with similar demographic profiles to Vietnam have already abandoned birth control policies. She emphasized that the amendment aligns with international experience and is necessary to address the current situation.
The Government aims for the revised policy to tackle disparities in birth rates across different regions and demographics. A key objective is to prevent the national birth rate from dropping too low, which could negatively impact long-term socio-economic development, national security, and defense.
Recent data from the Ministry of Health highlights a consistent decline in Vietnam’s fertility rate. It fell from an average of 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and further to 1.91 in 2024 – the lowest level recorded in the country’s history, with expectations of continued decline.
HCMC is among 21 provinces and centrally-governed cities in Vietnam experiencing low birth rates. According to the Vietnam Population Authority, women of reproductive age in HCMC are projected to have an average of 1.39 children in 2025. This figure is significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 children needed to sustain the population. Similar trends have been reported in Can Tho City and Ba Ria-Vung Tau Province, where the fertility rate has dropped below 1.5.
Experts warned that a prolonged period of low birth rates, particularly in economically robust and highly urbanized areas with significant international integration, could lead to severe consequences. These include accelerated population aging, labor shortages, and increased pressure on social security systems.
While research indicates that the desire for two children remains prevalent in Vietnamese society, various socio-economic factors significantly influence couples’ decisions regarding family size. These factors include workplace pressures, economic strains, and the increasingly huge costs of raising children.
In March this year, the Party’s Central Inspection Commission issued new guidance, indicating that Party members who have a third child or more will no longer face disciplinary measures as they did in the past.
