HCMC – Standard Chartered Bank has forecasted the Vietnamese dong would fall further against the U.S. dollar, citing global and regional economic developments.
The bank’s latest macroeconomic update on Vietnam said the exchange rate between the dong and the dollar would be VND26,000 per dollar by mid-2025, up from its earlier forecast of VND25,450. It also revised its year-end forecast to VND25,700, from VND25,000.
The dong has moved in line with other emerging Asian currencies in recent years, under pressure from a strong U.S. dollar. Currency performance is expected to remain sensitive to global trade and economic conditions.
“We stay cautious on the near-term economic outlook and await more details on U.S. trade policies, given Vietnam’s large trade surplus with the U.S.,” said Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered.
Vietnam has signaled readiness to increase imports of U.S. goods, including agricultural products, to help address the trade imbalance.
The Government has raised its 2025 GDP growth target to at least 8%, up from 6.5-7%. It also expects inflation to rise to 4.5-5.0% to provide more room for monetary policy adjustments.
Standard Chartered expects the State Bank of Vietnam to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in the second quarter of this year to manage inflation risks.
