HCMC – Agricultural exports of Vietnam may plummet by up to US$8 billion, potentially shaving 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point off the agricultural sector’s growth, if the Middle East conflict lasts a year.
This worst-case scenario assumes a total disruption of exports to the region and a minimum 50-60% decline in shipments to Europe and North Africa.
The warnings were heard at a press briefing held on March 11 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, where officials outlined three response scenarios based on the duration of the conflict.
The ministry noted that a one-month conflict could cause a US$1 billion loss, while a three-month disruption might see damages rise to US$3.5 billion. Beyond direct trade losses, the sector is grappling with a 3-5% increase in production costs as global oil prices drive up prices of energy and fertilizer inputs, with urea hitting its highest levels since 2025.
Shipping freight costs are also projected to surge by 25–30% as shipping lines reroute to avoid risks, adding 7 to 14 days to delivery times.
To solve such matters, the ministry is working to diversify export markets to mitigate risks. While the Middle East is a significant market, Vietnam’s established trade networks with China, the U.S., and the EU provide a vital buffer. The ministry is currently collaborating with other governmental agencies to update market information and advise businesses on adjusting production and export plans to ensure stability amidst the regional volatility.
