HCMC – Vietnam’s golden population period is expected to end in 2036, giving way to an aged and super-aged population phase as the elderly population grows rapidly.
According to the National Statistics Office, Vietnam’s population will continue to grow in the coming decades, but at a gradually slowing pace, and is expected to peak around 2059 under the medium scenario before shifting to a period of slower growth or stabilization.
Population projections indicate that over the next decade, Vietnam’s population will range from 104 million to 118 million, depending on fertility scenarios. Notably, internal migration is declining sharply and is increasingly concentrated on movements between urban areas.
Looking further ahead, over the 2024–2074 period, Vietnam’s population is projected under three fertility scenarios: low fertility at 1.45 children per woman, medium fertility at 1.85 children per woman, and high fertility at 2.01 children per woman.
Under these scenarios, the population is expected to grow by 2.5%, 12.7%, and 17%, reaching around 103.9 million, 114.2 million, and 118.5 million people, respectively.
The period of a golden population structure will come to an end in 2036, giving way to an aging and super-aging population phase.
Vietnam is currently undergoing population aging. Under the medium-scenario projection, the country is expected to enter the aged population phase in 2034.
During the 2034-2036 period, Vietnam will simultaneously maintain a golden population structure while also transitioning into an aged society. Vietnam’s aged population phase is projected to last for about 15 years, from 2034 to 2049.
From 2050 to 2074, the country is expected to enter a super-aged population structure, with people aged 65 and older accounting for more than 21% of the total population.
In addition, the gender imbalance at birth, which is expected to persist until the mid-21st century, will continue to affect the population’s sex structure, while urbanization will continue but is likely to slow as the urban population share approaches the 50% threshold.
