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GRDP growth of 6-8% set for southeastern region in 2021-2030

By T. Dao

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HCMC – The Vietnam Institute for Development Strategies has forecasted that the average gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of the southeastern region of Vietnam will range from 6.04% to 8.07% between 2021 and 2030.

The institute has outlined three growth scenarios for the southeastern region, considering factors such as economic trends, trade dynamics, investment patterns, demographics, social issues, climate change, and internal factors that could impact the region’s development.

In the first scenario, the average annual GRDP growth rate is projected to be 4.92% for 2021-2025 and 7.18% for 2026-2030, resulting in an overall average of 6.04% for the entire 2021-2030 period. Further projections extend to 2031-2050, anticipating an average growth rate of around 6.85% annually.

The second scenario envisions an average annual GRDP growth rate of 5.48% for 2021-2025, followed by a higher rate of 8.66% for 2026-2030. The overall average growth rate for 2021-2030 is expected to reach 7.06%, with an estimated average rate of around 7.2% annually for the subsequent 2031-2050 period.

In the third scenario, the projection involves an average annual GRDP growth rate of 5.97% for 2021-2025 (3.88% for 2021-2023 and 9.18% for 2024-2025), and a higher average rate of 10.2% for 2026-2030. The combined average growth rate for 2021-2030 is anticipated to be 8.07%, with an estimated average rate of about 7.6% per year for the period from 2031 to 2050.

During the 2021-2030 period, the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is projected to be 46.8%, while labor productivity growth is expected to average 5.4% annually in the first scenario.

In the second scenario, TFP’s contribution increases to 50.9%, accompanied by an average labor productivity growth rate of 6.4% from 2021 to 2030. The third scenario envisions TFP’s contribution rising to 58.5%, along with an average labor productivity growth rate of 7.4% per year during the same period.

Three GRDP growth scenarios of Vietnam’s southeastern region during 2021-2030 outlined by the Vietnam Institute for Development Strategies, with the green column representing the first scenario, cyan the second scenario, and green the third scenario – PHOTO: Ministry of Planning and Investment

These growth trajectories are indicative of a rise in average per capita income, with projections reaching around US$8,200-8,600 per person by 2025, US$11,800-14,500 per person by 2030, and US$53,000 per person by 2050, subject to scenario-specific variations.

The need for capital investment is also expected to escalate, with estimates of nearly VND11.4 quadrillion for the 2021-2030 period in the first scenario (2.1 times higher than 2011-2020), VND12.3 quadrillion (2.3 times higher) under the second scenario, and VND15.8 quadrillion (3 times higher) under the third scenario.

Investment-to-GRDP ratios, based on current prices, are projected to range from 27% to 32% across the different scenarios.

The southeastern region’s developmental goals prioritize sustainability, resource efficiency, climate adaptation, and a transition to modern growth models. High-tech industries and premium services are identified as potential drivers of economic expansion.

The institute emphasized the pivotal role the region plays in Vietnam’s upcoming socio-economic development phase. In 2022, the southeastern region contributed approximately 31% to the nation’s GRDP and 35% to national exports.

Moreover, the region’s per capita GRDP was 1.64 times higher than the national average. Notably, urbanization stood at 66.5%, which is 1.8 times higher than the national average.

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