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Inflation seen exceeding 4% this year – expert

By Van Phong

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HCMC – The consumer price surge triggered by the Russia-Ukraine military conflict will certainly cause inflation to exceed 4% this year, Associate Professor Dr. To Trung Thanh said at a seminar yesterday.

Speaking at the seminar, which looked into Vietnam’s economic performance in 2021 and prospects in 2022, the head of the National Economics University’s Science Management Division said rising global inflation is putting a strain on Vietnam’s economy.

As of March 11, fuel prices had surged 45.2% over 2021, exposing the economy to greater inflationary pressure.

Thanh said the fourth wave of Covid induced by the Delta variant had caused unprecedented difficulties and challenges for Vietnam last year as its economy expanded a mere 2.58%.

This year, the Vietnamese economy is facing three key challenges. The Covid pandemic with new variants, the increasing global geopolitical instability and the oil price surge will affect hinder the recovery of Vietnam’s major trade and investment partners, such as the United States, the European Union and China.

The central banks of developed economies, especially the United States, have tightened monetary policies due to their concerns over inflation, which will in turn affect Vietnam’s economic recovery progress.

Furthermore, the risks of the property and stock markets remain high.

These risks may affect the nation’s growth pace and quality. However, Vietnam’s economic growth target of 6.5% is achievable, Thanh noted.

The processing, manufacturing and export sectors will remain the driving forces of economic development this year. In addition, the enhancement of public investment will contribute significantly to growth.

The manufacturing and service sectors will have more opportunities to recover thanks to the reopening of the economy.

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