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Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam’s 2030 export revenue to reach US$620 billion

By Dat Thanh

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HCMC – Vietnam is poised to become a major driver of global trade growth, with its export revenue projected to reach US$618 billion by 2030, according to a report by Standard Chartered titled “Future of Trade: New opportunities in high-growth corridors.”

The report said that global trade is expected to reach US$32.6 trillion by 2030, with a growth rate of 5%. With an annual growth rate of 7%, Vietnam would surpass the global average by two percentage points.

Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will serve as anchors for global trade, with Asia leading the way. Trade corridors in these regions will outpace the global trade growth rate by up to four percentage points, driving combined trade volume to US$14.4 trillion, accounting for 44% of global trade by 2030.

“Vietnam holds tremendous potential to be a global trading hub,” said Michele Wee, CEO of Standard Chartered Vietnam.

In the previous edition of the report published in 2021, Standard Chartered estimated Vietnam’s exports to reach US$535 billion by 2030. However, the latest edition has revised the forecast, reflecting a significant surge of US$83 billion in Vietnam’s export projection.

Mainland China, South Korea, and the U.S. are expected to be Vietnam’s key trading partners in the coming years. Additionally, trade with India, Singapore, and Indonesia is forecast to experience robust growth from 2021 to 2030.

The machinery and electrical sector will dominate Vietnam’s export landscape, accounting for 50% of the export forecast in 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 6.6% from 2021 to 2030. Mainland China is anticipated to remain the largest export destination for this sector by 2030, followed by the U.S. and South Korea. Exports to India are projected to grow robustly during the same period.

Vietnam’s textile and apparel exports are expected to expand by 7.3% annually, accounting for 22% of the export forecast in 2030. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea are anticipated to remain the largest importers of Vietnam’s textile and apparel products.

On the other hand, Vietnam’s imports are projected to reach US$578 billion by 2030, with average annual growth of 6.9% between 2021 and 2030. Vietnam is expected to maintain a trade surplus, with foreign-invested firms playing a dominant role.

To support the production of finished electronic goods for exports, Vietnam imports key electronic components such as integrated circuits, micro assemblies, and other items as inputs and tools. These imports are predicted to account for 47% of the country’s import forecast in 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 7% from 2021 to 2030.

Mainland China, South Korea, and Singapore are expected to remain the top three importers of Vietnam’s commodities 2030.

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