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The volatility of the coffee market

Coffee prices have soared to more than VND90 million per ton, resulting in profit for farmers over 100% of production cost. Despite rising prices, coffee supply has remained scarce. While global coffee output remains steady and exports from coffee-producing nations rise, recent strains in both domestic and international coffee markets have led to a significant spike in prices. Brazil’s optimistic forecast for the 2024-2025 coffee crop adds to the complexity of the situation. In light of these developments, it is prudent to weigh the pros and cons of the coffee market, particularly in the robusta segment, to assess potential price risks and supply dynamics as the 2023-2024 coffee crop progresses. Supply and demand In its latest monthly report, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) revealed that global coffee exports surged to 12.6 million bags (a bag equals 60 kilograms) in January 2024, up by 32.2% compared to the same period last year. This robust export volume has contributed to a 13.1% rise in global coffee exports during the first four months of the crop year, versus the previous year. According to the ICO, coffee production across all major coffee-producing regions in the current crop year has reached 178 million bags, while […]
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