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Tuesday, June 18, 2024

The gold rush amid macroeconomic woes

By Huynh The Du - Nguyen Xuan Thanh

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Our analyses indicate that the gold buying spree in Vietnam results from either macroeconomic instability or rising global gold prices, or both. A review of the cycles of macroeconomic instability and the gold rushes in the nation gives a clear picture. Cycles of macroeconomic instability Macroeconomic instability will ensue when economic fundamentals weaken, such as domestic demand and supply, balance of payments, financial income and expenditure, savings and investment. The common signs of macroeconomic instability include double-digit inflation, large current account deficits, high public debt, and stagnant or declining GDP. Black swan events such as wars, political shocks, financial crises, and recession also lead to macroeconomic instability. Looking back at the period from 1955 to 2023, Vietnam has gone through many cycles of macroeconomic instability and difficulties. Recent challenges This has been happening since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. After a brief recovery in the first half of 2022, the situation has gotten worse since the third quarter of 2022 due to both internal and external factors. Runaway inflation in the U.S. and Europe, difficulties in China, and wars are external shocks that have adversely affected Vietnam’s economy due to the high level of its exposure to […]
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