HCMC – The government of HCMC has set an ambitious target to achieve a gross regional domestic product (GRDP) growth rate of at least 6.5% in the first quarter of 2024, the highest level since 2020.
Nguyen Van Dung, vice chairman of the HCMC People’s Committee, announced this goal during a socio-economic meeting on February 1. The Q1 target is a crucial step toward the city’s aim of achieving a full-year growth rate of 7.5-8%.
The 6.5% GRDP growth target for the first quarter represents the most optimistic scenario among three scenarios forecasted by the HCMC Institute for Development Studies (HIDS).
If global and national economic conditions improve, along with increased confidence among businesses and households, the growth rate in this quarter could range from 6% to 7.12%, HIDS said.
HIDS also outlined two other scenarios: one where the economy recovers slowly and political conflicts escalate worldwide, leading to a GRDP growth rate of 4.83-5.95%; and another where the economy maintains its growth momentum from late 2023, resulting in a growth rate of 6.05%, with an estimated range of 5.49-6.61%.
While total retail sales of goods and consumer services surged by 24.4% year-on-year in January, the industrial production index declined by 4.5% compared to the end of 2023 yet surged 26.9% year-on-year. Consumer demand in HCMC is expected to continue rising but exports may face challenges.
To avoid a repeat of the slow growth seen in the first quarter of 2023 when GRDP grew by a mere 0.7%, the city’s government has taken various initiatives related to public investment, domestic consumption, and e-commerce expansion since the end of last year to boost growth momentum for 2024.
