HCMC – Standard Chartered Bank has raised its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth to 7.5% in 2025 from 6.1% previously, citing stronger trade and investment activity. The bank also expects growth of 7.2% in 2026, up from 6.2%.
Inflation is projected at 3.4% for 2025 and 3.7% for 2026, reflecting steady price pressures amid faster growth.
Exports reached US$42.7 billion in September 2025, up 24.7% year-on-year, driven by electronics and computers, which surged 66.2%. Phone exports rose 17.5%, while machinery gained 11.6%. Imports climbed 24.9% to US$39.8 billion, led by electronics components and machinery, signaling an expansion in industrial production.
The bank said Vietnam’s external position remains stable, supported by a strong trade balance and a resilient foreign exchange outlook. Foreign reserves, which had declined earlier due to U.S. dollar strength, are expected to recover.
Credit growth has exceeded 15% year-on-year, supported by favorable liquidity and rising business lending. The central bank’s refinancing rate is expected to stay at 4.5% through 2026.
Foreign direct investment has continued to rise, with disbursed FDI up 8.5% year-on-year to US$18.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025. Pledged FDI increased 15.2% to US$28.5 billion.
Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, said strong FDI inflows and export growth highlight Vietnam’s expanding role in global supply chains.
Standard Chartered kept its USD/VND forecasts unchanged at VND26,300 per dollar for 2025 and VND26,750 per dollar for 2026.
