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CIEM: 2023 GDP growth may beat target

By Thai Huy

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HCMC – Experts at the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) have forecast that Vietnam’s 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth may exceed the National Assembly-approved target of 6.5%.

It was one of the two scenarios envisioned by CIEM and the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) at a workshop “Vietnam’s economy in 2022 and prospects in 2023: Innovation for higher growth quality”, held yesterday, January 12.

In the first scenario, in which export expands 8.43%, trade surplus hits US$8.15 billion, and inflation registers at 3.69%, Vietnam’s GDP may expand 6.83%.

In the second scenario, wherein exports achieve growth of 7.21%, trade surplus reaches US$5.64 billion, and inflation is 4.08%, the nation’s GDP may grow 6.47%.

According to CIEM, the control over Covid-19 transmission and other infectious diseases, coupled with the ability to diversify export markets and the handling of trade and technology tensions among superpowers, and the weakening of regional currencies against the U.S. dollar, would make a big difference to Vietnam’s economic growth in 2023.

Major economies would continue to pursue tight monetary policy and vie for geopolitical influence. The Russia-Ukraine military conflict may not be over soon. But like-minded countries are expected to boost cooperation in various fields.

If Vietnam maintains macroeconomic stability, the country can resume reforming policy and promoting fiscal and monetary measures to help restore economic growth.

The report by CIEM also suggests the Government seek new growth momentum in response to the expectation of a gradual economic slowdown and step up efforts to develop a digital economy and public services.

Amid global economic growth prospects confronting a unique mix of headwinds such as lingering pandemic impacts and global geopolitical tensions, Vietnam staged an impressive economic performance in 2022, with GDP growing 8.02%, said Dennis Quennet, chief advisor of the GIZ Macroeconomic Reforms/Green Growth Program in Vietnam.

Given the current macro- and micro-economic conditions, the country needs to strengthen ASEAN economic integration and make the private sector a key economic driver, he added.

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