HCMC – United Overseas Bank (UOB) has lowered its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2026 to 7% from 7.5%, citing supply shocks and energy risks.
In its latest report, UOB expects the most difficult period to fall in the second and third quarters, when global energy prices remain high and supply constraints peak before easing later in the year.
The bank noted that first-quarter activity stayed positive, supported by external demand and manufacturing. However, an energy shock linked to the Middle East is creating short-term pressure on Vietnam and other Asian economies.
Rising energy costs are affecting transport and logistics. At the same time, supply conditions are tightening as inventories decline. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key bottleneck for global shipping.
The Middle East is also a major supplier of inputs for sectors such as agriculture, construction, plastics, semiconductors, and healthcare. These range from petrochemicals and aluminum to fertilizers, sulfur, helium, and steel components. Prolonged disruptions could increase supply chain risks.
UOB highlighted U.S. trade policy as another uncertainty. Export-dependent economies such as Vietnam may face investigations under measures such as Section 301.
The report noted that Vietnam and other ASEAN economies showed resilience in 2025 despite U.S. tariffs introduced in April. Future impacts will depend on the scope and timing of further measures.
UOB cautioned that its outlook carries high uncertainty and downside risks, depending on developments in the Middle East.
On domestic conditions, first-quarter growth slowed but exceeded expectations, supported by manufacturing, construction, and services. Trade and investment maintained momentum.
On monetary policy, UOB expects the State Bank of Vietnam to keep policy rates unchanged in the near term, with the Government taking the lead in addressing inflation pressures and supply shortages.
