HCMC – Vietnam must achieve an economic expansion of at least 9.7% in the fourth quarter to meet its 2025 GDP growth target, Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) said.
UOB raised its full-year growth forecast to 7.7% from 7.5%, while the Government aims for 8.3–8.5% growth.
The bank noted that Vietnam’s economy has exceeded expectations so far, with 7.85% growth in the first three quarters, despite risks from U.S. tariffs.
UOB forecast fourth-quarter growth at 7.2%, citing trade tensions and tariffs. To reach the Government’s full-year target, the fourth quarter would need to expand between 9.7% and 10.5%.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said at a Government meeting on November 8 that Q4 GDP growth must exceed 8.4% to achieve full-year growth above 8%.
Data from the National Statistics Office showed Vietnam’s real GDP grew 8.23% year-on-year in the third quarter. Strong exports and manufacturing supported the increase, despite U.S. tariffs.
This followed a revised 8.19% expansion in Q2, higher than initial estimates of 7.96%. Overall, the economy expanded 7.85% in the first nine months of this year.
