HCMC – Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 to 7% from its previous projection of 6.6%, citing strong economic momentum in 2024 and potential domestic growth drivers.
The revised forecast, outlined in UOB’s Vietnam Economic Outlook 2025 report, also factors in uncertainties tied to the new U.S. administration’s trade policies. Despite these external factors, UOB remains optimistic about Vietnam’s growth path.
Vietnam’s economy expanded 7.09% last year, fueled by the robust performance of the manufacturing and services sectors. Fourth-quarter GDP growth reached 7.55%, exceeding market expectations of 6.7% and UOB’s earlier estimate of 5.2%.
The country’s 2024 export revenue amounted to US$400 billion, nearly matching its nominal GDP of US$450 billion. Semiconductor sales have been a consistent growth driver since mid-2023, a trend which UOB expects to continue into early 2025.
Inflation remained below the Government’s 4.5% target in 2024, providing room for monetary easing. However, UOB analysts predict the central bank will maintain policy rates amid concerns over currency devaluation.
The Vietnam dong currency weakened by 5% against the U.S. dollar in 2024, closing the year at VND25,485 per dollar. UOB projects the local currency will decline further to VND25,800 per dollar in Q1 2025 and VND26,000 per dollar by year-end.
