HCMC – The Vietnam National Authority of Tourism (VNAT) looks to attract up to 25 million international visitors this year under a high-growth scenario while a lower scenario projects about 22.5 million.
The VNAT outlined two growth scenarios based on global conditions and policy effectiveness.
In the first quarter of the year, international arrivals amounted to 6.7 million, up 12.4% from a year earlier and the highest level on record. Domestic travel reached an estimated 37 million trips, with total tourism revenue at around VND267 trillion.
Global developments pose risks. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up fuel prices, increasing transport and tourism service costs. Although the Middle East accounts for about 0.2% of total arrivals, indirect impacts on demand and business activity remain notable.
Under the high-growth scenario, the sector targets 25 million foreign visitors and 150 million domestic trips. In the lower scenario, projections stand at 22.5 million international arrivals and 130 million domestic travelers.
For the 2026–2031 period, three growth scenarios have been developed. In the most optimistic case, international arrivals are expected to grow 15–18% annually, reaching 45–50 million by 2030, supported by improvements in visa policies, aviation, and digital transformation.
To meet these targets, the sector plans regulatory reforms, stronger promotion, market diversification, and expanded digitalization.
Nguyen Trung Khanh, head of the VNAT, said that near-term priorities include implementing government policies to develop tourism into a key economic sector and revising the 2017 Tourism Law and related regulations.
Other measures include strengthening tourism branding, focusing on high-spending markets, and building a digital data system for management and promotion.
Longer-term priorities center on infrastructure development, product linkages, green transition, and improving business competitiveness.
